A mere two months in the past that Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while his coach berated him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as the club went six without a win, the question was whether his displays were a symptom or the source for Villa's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. As Rogers swept in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team continued to a 10th successive win , after failing to win their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves a mere three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. The historical record, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, while the victories have piled up.
According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side registered an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a side which has put together ten consecutive victories, Villa look strangely fragile – but currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition before hoping their talisman to bail them out with two crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and again when facing the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, arced just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, Manchester United registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge Villa have to face as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on drilling the ball into the top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still return to peak condition.
- The main striker may begin to scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho might become the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned the young forward by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title and appearing as a crucial Three Lions star.
The current run must be cherished exactly since it appears so improbable. When the match-winner stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
